BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF

Posted by BW Actual on Oct 13th 2022

BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF

Ukraine

  • The UN General Assembly voted overwhelmingly to condemn Russia’s illegal annexation of four Ukrainian regions. A total of 143 countries supported the resolution; 35 – including China and India – abstained; and five – Russia and its friends in Belarus, Nicaragua, North Korea, and Syria – voted against it.
  • Meanwhile, several Western countries responded to Pres. Zelensky’s call for more air-defense systems: Canada, France, the Netherlands, and the UK promised to send more military aid (the U.S. had already promised more before Zelensky even asked).
  • Following a meeting with top Pentagon officials, U.S. SecDef Austin predicted that Ukraine will continue to retake ground from Russia over a winter counteroffensive, and also committed to providing Ukraine the military kit to do so.
  • NATO hasn’t responded to Ukraine’s request for fast-track membership – and probably won’t rush to admit Ukraine, given the complexities of applying the bloc’s mutual defense clause to a country already at war – but the deputy secretary of Russia’s Security Council made the prospect even more daunting: he warned of a “guaranteed escalation to a world war three” if Ukraine joins NATO.

Russia

  • Speaking at an energy conference in Moscow, Pres. Putin offered to divert Russian gas to Europe through Turkey to make up for volumes lost to disruptions in the Nord Stream pipelines…”That is, of course, if our partners are interested in this. And economic feasibility.”
  • Turkey’s Energy Minister said that was the first he’d heard of the idea and “it is early to make an assessment” on it (though it’s probably an intriguing idea for Turkey, which stands to gain if it can truly become the “largest gas hub for Europe” as Putin alluded).

China

  • Pres. Biden released his first National Security Strategy as president, and it named China – not Russia – the U.S.’s “most consequential geopolitical challenge. However, it also noted the need for “restraining” Russia – and was delayed a year because Russia’s war in Ukraine distracted U.S. geopolicy.

Iran

  • Some oil workers in Iran walked out for a second day, even though at least 11 of them were arrested for protesting yesterday. The arrests would seem to suggest they were not merely striking over pay, as state media claimed (when Iran’s oil workers strike over pay, the government generally rushes to accommodate them since they’re critical to a vital industry).
  • Indeed, a Telegram announcement from an oil workers’ union organizing committee reiterated solidarity with nationwide protests and demanded the release of their colleagues who had been arrested.
  • Meanwhile, Ayatollah Khamenei has shown no willingness to hear the protesters out: yesterday he reiterated baseless charges that foreign powers – i.e., the U.S. and Israel – instigated the protests.

Venezuela

  • The Biden administration announced two new policies on Venezuelan migration that balance a tricky tightrope ahead of midterm elections.
  • First, a new humanitarian parole plan will accept up to 24,000 Venezuelan migrants, prioritizing those who apply remotely and can demonstrate sponsorship in the U.S. This shows Biden is helping refugees – although Venezuelans who have the means and desire to apply this way have probably already applied for asylum.
  • Second, a Trump-era public health rule is being expanded to allow the U.S. to expel to Mexico Venezuelan migrants who crossed illegally. This helps Biden look tougher on illegal border crossings, which have reached record levels this year.

Azerbaijan

  • France’s Pres. Macron accused Russia of inciting the latest border skirmishes between Azerbaijan and Armenia: “You see what's happening? It's an effort by Russia to destabilize. It wants to create disorder in the Caucasus to destabilize all of us.” Macron – along with the U.S. and Russia – has been helping to mediate between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

North Korea

  • Kim Jong Un observed yet another test launch yesterday, watching cruise missiles that state media said were nuclear capable fly about 1,250 miles (2,000 km).
  • South Korea’s president was unimpressed, saying the North’s cruise missiles don’t pose a threat since they’re “slow enough to be intercepted.”