Coming Up This Week

• U.S. SecState Blinken landed in the Middle East yesterday for a five-day trip to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Israel, and the West Bank. His agenda is complicated: he hopes to promote a complex set of interlocking agreements for peace in Gaza, hostage releases, and potential future Saudi recognition of Israel.
• Azerbaijan votes for president on Wednesday. Pres. Aliyev is sure to win: the country's only genuine opposition is boycotting the vote, and the candidates who are officially running against him spent most of their campaign singing his praises.
• Pakistan will hold an unexciting general election on Thursday. None of the lackluster candidates have great ideas for solving the country's economic or security woes.
• Saturday, Feb. 10 is Chinese (lunar) new year, marking the start of the Year of the Dragon in most countries that celebrate it.
• On Sunday, Feb. 11, the Kansas City Chiefs - aka Taylor Swift's boyfriend's team - play the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII.

Commodity Prices

• Aluminum: $2,234/ton
• Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $13,250/ton
• Cobalt: $29,135/ton
• Copper: $8,482/ton
• Gold: $2,023/toz
• Lead: $2,145/ton
• Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.10/MMbtu
• WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $72.00/barrel
• Zinc: $2,451/ton

Ukraine

• In a televised address yesterday, Pres. Zelensky indicated that he's planning "a reset, a new beginning" for Ukraine's leadership that goes beyond sacking his popular top military commander, Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhny. He didn't offer much further detail.
• Separately, UK intelligence estimated that Belarus is still hosting Wagner Group mercenaries, but fewer than 1,000 of them - compared to the 8,000 or so who were there in June 2023.
• The UK doesn't think the remaining Wagner personnel in Belarus are planning an imminent new front in the war - they're mostly there to train Belarusian police - but their mere presence forces Ukraine to tie up troops and defenses at the northern border with Belarus, just in case.

Iran

• The U.S. struck over 85 targets in Iraq and Syria over the weekend, while the U.S. and UK jointly hit 36 Houthi targets in north Yemen.
• Both campaigns were designed to retaliate against Iran-backed militants groups who have been firing at U.S. and Western interests in the region - but to do so in a cautiously choreographed manner intended to mitigate the risk of further escalation. (Yes, the U.S. toed that line by killing 18 pro-Iran fighters in the Iraq and Syria, but it telegraphed its intent to strike well in advance to give Iranian personnel time to move to safety).
• Unusually, Jordanian aircraft reportedly participated in the operations in Iraq and Syria, and were even assigned targets. This is the first time since around 2014 that Jordan directly participated in airstrikes; its participation now was intended to show solidarity with the U.S.
• U.S. officials say the strikes in Iraq and Syria were only the beginning, and Pres. Biden has ordered more retaliatory strikes to come.

Haiti

• Rather than appeal it, Kenya's government plans to ignore a court injunction blocking its deployment of 1,000 peacekeepers to lead a multinational force in Haiti and send them anyway. The injunction was procedural anyway, and neither the Kenyan court nor the UN nor Haiti object to the deployment in principle (though some human rights groups do).

Pakistan

• Baloch separatists launched attacks on the Pakistani towns of Mach and Kolpur - near the border with Afghanistan - and the army retaliated with operations that killed 24 militants over the last three days. The government is eager to appear in control ahead of general elections on Thursday.

DRC

• Suspected M23 rebels in North Kivu fired at South African peacekeepers flying in the South Africa National Army's only deployable Oryx helicopter on Friday, injuring four aboard. The aircraft landed safely in Goma.

Other News

• Senegal's Pres. Sall cancelled a vote that was supposed to elect his successor on Feb. 25, saying the national assembly and constitutional court needed time to resolve an ongoing dispute before the poll takes place.
• Sall is not running this time - it's unclear whether a 2016 constutional change would even allow him to run for a third term - so delaying this election is his surest way to stay in power. His critics called the cancellation a "coup."
• Meanwhile, El Salvador's Pres. Bukele claimed victory in yesterday's election. The NYT summed up his first term well, saying he "reshaped El Salvador by cracking down on both gangs and civil liberties."