China

• China reported five COVID deaths yesterday, but analysts monitoring hospital and funeral data say the true figure is almost certainly much higher. State media said it could take months to return to "normalcy."
• The U.S. State Department called on China to address the runaway COVID outbreak before the virus has a chance to mutate into a more threatening variant.
• Meanwhile, China's business confidence index - a metric based on a survey of sales managers at over 2,300 companies - fell to its lowest level since tracking began in 2013. Analysts blamed negative impacts from both COVID cases and containment measures.
• China has apparently stopped publishing trade data from Xinjiang, where a U.S. ban on exports potentially made with forced labor has probably reduced outbound trade (China frequently hides unfavorable data).

• Russia celebrated its Security Services Day yesterday, and Pres. Putin commemorated the occasion by instructing security officials to step up their counterespionage and border control efforts - including domestic surveillance of Russians.
• Putin's trip to Belarus yesterday raised concerns that Russian and Belarusian forces may use Belarus as a launching pad for an attempt to seize Kyiv - which is just 55 miles (89 km) from the Belarusian border. That would represent a significant escalation, though.

• Pres. Zelensky said the transfer of a Patriot air defense system to Ukraine is "underway" and something he's "personally dealing with." As we learned when it was first announced that the U.S. was transferring the system to Ukraine, the battery won't make much of a practical difference to Ukrainian defenses and is mostly a symbol of unwavering U.S. support for Ukraine.

• At least two Venezuela's four main opposition parties proposed replacing U.S.-backed Juan Guaidó as their leader with a committee of opposition lawmakers instead. They're due to discuss the plan during a National Assembly session Thursday.
• If the replacement goes through, it would be a blow to U.S. efforts to support the opposition, which focused on Guaidó as the central figure and interim president.

• An investigation by Insider alleged that Afghan smugglers brought at least $824 million in undeclared gold and cash across the border at Hairatan, Balkh province into Uzbekistan from May 2019 to May 2020.
• Uzbek border officials meticulously recorded (but did not confiscate) the illegal imports on handwritten forms showing the funds were headed for the UAE - where top Afghan officials expected to flee in the event their government collapsed.
• At the time, it was illegal to export more than $20,000 even if it was declared - and illegal to export $10,000 to $20,000 if undeclared.
• The Uzbek customs forms don't specify who smuggled the money out of Afghanistan, but Afghan government documents allege that Balkh governor Mohammed Atta Noor and former deputy speaker of the national parliament Mirza Mohammad Katawazai were involved in the smuggling ring.
• More here.

• Armed Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP, aka Pakistani Taliban) is holding several Pakistani security personnel hostage after storming an interrogation center in Bannu, near North Waziristan on Sunday. The provincial government says it's negotiating with the TTP.

• The South African rand rose against the U.S. dollar following Pres. Ramaphosa's reelection as head of his party. Markets had hoped Ramaphosa would be reelected to avoid uncertainty and disruption in economic policy, but the scandal he narrowly survived last week has damaged his reputation.