Gaza

• Israel appears to be moving towards a ground invasion of Rafah: its jets strafed the city over the past two days, and Israeli officials say plans for relocating civilians from Rafah to a new safe zone on Gaza's coastline are coming together.
• As Israel prepares to invade Rafah, a top Hamas political official told AP Hamas would agree to a five-year truce and lay down its weapons if Israel and the world recognize an independent Palestinian state with pre-1967 borders.
• Israel is unlikely to agree to that: first, hardliners insist on crushing Hamas and would reject any proposal that empowers it; second, even before the Gaza war started, a strong majority of Israelis - 77% - opposed a return to pre-1967 borders because of security concerns.
• Germany plans to resume its aid funding for the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) in Gaza after Israel failed to present evidence supporting its claims that Hamas had infiltrated the agency's ranks. Germany is the UNRWA's second-largest donor; its largest (the U.S.) and seven other top 20 donors - collectively representing 56% of UNRWA's 2022 funding - still have pauses in place.
• Pres. Biden signed the long-stalled military aid bill for Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan that shook loose from congressional gridlock this week. The law provides $1 billion in humanitarian aid for Gaza and $15 billion in military aid for Israel.

Ukraine

• A senior U.S. official told the media last week that the Pentagon secretly sent Ukraine a new longer-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) system last week - and Ukraine has already used it to strike Russian positions in Crimea and southeast Ukraine.
• Ukraine already had some shorter-range ATACMS that can reach about 100 miles (160 km) away, but it's been asking for this new longer-range version - which can strike targets around 190 miles (305 km) away - for years.

Russia

• Russia analysts are abuzz with further speculation about this week's arrest of deputy defense minister Timur Ivanov - ostensibly on corruption charges.
• A Cornell professor surmised that Ivanov's arrest could have been a warning to his boss, defense minister Shoigu: "something along the lines of 'that could have been you.'"
• Shoigu has generally been on Putin's good side - especially when both were playing a lethal game of geopolitical chess with Sergey Prigozhin - but Shoigu has been increasingly blamed for Russia's battlefield failures in Ukraine. If the speculators are right, this could be the first sign of a rift between Putin and Shoigu - and the start of Shoigu's downfall.

Myanmar

• Myanmar's government forces recaptured the northern trading hub of Myawaddy from rebels yesterday. That was a blow to the rebel coalition fighting the junta, which had captured the town just two weeks ago.
• Despite the government's success recapturing Myawaddy, the tide still seems to be turning against it and the operation to recapture Myawaddy was more difficult and costly than it would've been a year ago because the rebels defending it are stronger and better organized now than they were then.

China

• The NYT reported that the new bipartisan bill ordering ByteDance to sell TikTok or face a U.S. ban was carefully crafted behind closed doors over the course of the last year: its authors wanted to keep the proposal a secret while they patched its holes so TikTok's lobbyists couldn't shut it down before it saw the light of day.
• Pres. Biden signed the TikTok bill into law yesterday - although the NYT was quick to point out that his campaign continues to maintain a TikTok account to reach hip young voters.

Yemen

• After a brief lull - thought to reflect a dwindling inventory of weapons, thanks to U.S. strikes on its arsenals - Yemen's Houthis are reinvigorating their campaign to strike Red Sea ships "in support of the Palestinian people in Gaza." Yesterday the Houthis claimed three separate attacks - all unsuccessful.

Mining

• The world's largest mining company, BHP, made a $39 billion offer to acquire its struggling rival, Anglo American.
• Anglo's valuation took a dip because of its financial struggles - its net profit was down 94% in 2023 - so BHP probably sees this as a great opportunity to acquire Anglo copper assets it's been eyeing for years on the cheap.
• BHP's offer values Anglo at £31.1 billion ($39 billion), which is less than half its early 2022 enterprise value.