Ukraine War

• Ukrainian forces are increasingly on the offensive against stumbling Russian invaders. It now looks like Ukraine may retake Kherson, which was the first major city to fall to Russian forces.
• Satellite imagery from Planet Labs shows Russia has withdrawn most of its aircraft from Kherson. Analysts think their removal was a precaution to avoid further damage from Ukrainian attacks on Kherson—like one last week that heavily damaged Russian equipment.
• A senior NATO official estimated that 15,000 Russian troops have been killed in action in Ukraine. That’s more than double the Pentagon’s official estimate, and 50% higher than Ukraine’s latest estimate.
• Ukraine says Russian troops hijacked a humanitarian aid convoy and captured 15 aid workers and truck drivers—and perhaps some much-needed food supplies. Ukrainian estimates still suggest Russian forces are perilously close to running out of food and ammo.

International Opprobrium

• Pres. Zelensky plans to meet virtually with China’s Pres. Xi in the near future. That’s significant because China has thus far been cautiously supportive of Russia’s side in the war, and is thought to be considering sending economic or military support to Russia (despite U.S. warnings against doing so). The fact that Xi is considering talking to Zelensky could mean Chinese support for Russia isn’t as certain as it once seemed.
• The U.S. government formally determined that Russia committed war crimes in Ukraine.
• The U.S. and its allies are said to be considering ousting Russia from the G20, and Reuters says Poland wants to be considered as a possible replacement (China, India, and Saudi Arabia would probably veto Poland joining). Russia says Pres. Putin still plans to attend the G20 summit in Indonesia in October, but he’s likely to get a chilly welcome.
• Pres. Putin declared that “unfriendly” countries must pay for their Russian gas in rubles in retaliation for their sanctions on Russia. Since the UK and EU are hooked on Russian gas, they’ll continue to buy from Russia but face higher prices: wholesale gas prices rose 30% overnight on Putin’s announcement.

Afghanistan

• The Taliban walked back its plan to reopen high schools for girls yesterday. Instead, the Ministry of Education says it still needs a reopening plan that complies with Islamic law. It had over six months to develop that plan, so reneging on a promise to let girls go back to school the very day their schools were supposed to reopen looks like very bad form.
• The Taliban’s reversal on girls’ schools will probably threaten humanitarian aid flows into Afghanistan, since donors have made girls’ education a main condition for their funding.
• Separately, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Kabul today and met with his Taliban counterpart. He’s the highest-level Chinese official to visit Kabul since the Taliban took power.

Somalia

• Two Al Shabaab gunmen disguised as airport workers attacked Halane camp near Mogadishu’s Aden Adde International Airport, killing six. Halane is one of the best-secured areas in Mogadishu: it houses the U.S. Embassy (and most foreign embassies) as well as AMISOM’s headquarters.

Other News

• Belarus granted “refugee” status to Evan Neumann, who is currently facing U.S. federal charges for participating in the Jan. 6 Capitol break-in. Neumann told Belarussian state media: “I am very grateful, and it is bittersweet. So, very happy and very sad at the same time. Belarus is very nice and I feel safe in Belarus, especially compared to my compatriots in America.”