BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF

Posted by BW Actual on Feb 4th 2025

BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF

Trade

  • Pres. Trump's new tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico roiled markets early yesterday, but Prime Minister Trudeau of Canada and Pres. Sheinbaum of Mexico quickly struck deals to postpone tariffs on their countries' goods for 30 days.
  • China's Pres. Xi wasn't as willing to negotiate, and Trump's additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports went into effect at 12:01 am U.S. time today. Trump's executive order implementing the new tariffs also ended the de minimus provision that Chinese e-commerce companies like Shein and Temu use to send cheap goods directly to U.S. consumers without tariffs.
  • Beijing promptly responded with new 10% tariffs on U.S. exports of oil, farm equipment, and large vehicles; as well as new 15% tariffs on U.S. exports of coal and natural gas. In addition, it added more restrictions on exports of critical minerals like tungsten and tellurium on the grounds of "national security and interests," and said its regulators have opened an anti-monopoly investigation into Google [which is blocked in China but works with Chinese companies in other markets].
  • Trump also signalled that tariffs on EU imports "will definitely happen" - and "pretty soon." He particularly complained about trade deficits with the EU in cars and farm products, so we can expect those sectors to face tariffs. The EU's top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, warned that "there are no winners in trade wars."
DRC
  • The Congo River Alliance of rebel groups - which includes the M23 - declared an unilateral ceasefire starting today for "humanitarian reasons," and said it does not intend to capture any more territory than it already has (which was a reversal on its earlier threats to advance on Bukavu).
  • It does, however, intend to keep control of Goma and the lucrative mineral trade running through it.
  • Separately, CNN interviewed Rwanda's Pres. Kagame about his involvement in the recent fighting in eastern DRC, and got some very Putin-esque answers.
  • CNN asked Kagame if Rwandan troops are currently inside DRC - local reports suggest around 4,000 of them are - and quoted Kagame's answer with a sassy side note: " 'I don’t know,' Kagame said, despite the fact that he is commander-in-chief of the Rwandan Defence Force."
  • Kagame was less opaque in acknowledging that there is "a problem in Congo that concerns Rwanda" and asserting "that Rwanda would do anything to protect itself."
  • The UN says the recent violence left at least 900 bodies in the streets of Goma - and that's excluding the Rwandan and rebel casualties, who were mostly evacuated over the border.
Iran
  • U.S. officials believe Iran's scientists are looking into shortcuts to make a crude nuclear bomb quickly IF Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei decides that a nuke would help deter attacks. They also believe Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei hasn't yet decided whether a mad dash for a bomb would be worth the risk of drawing pre-emptive strikes to stop it.
  • Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is meeting Trump today, and will probably raise the idea of striking Iran's nuclear facilities. Trump seems more inclined to negotiate with Iran than to pre-emptively bomb it, and Iran has signalled it's open to a deal, too.
Ukraine
  • Ukraine appears to be behind yesterday's assassination of Armen Sarkisyan, a Ukrainian separatist, in Moscow - although Kyiv is unlikely to officially acknowledge its involvement.
  • Separately, Pres. Trump said he's considering a deal to offer Ukraine future aid in exchange for rare earth minerals that are prevalent in Ukraine, like lithium, uranium, and titanium. Ukraine seems open to that trade: Pres. Zelensky proposed a similar offer in recent months as it became clear that Trump would seek to attach new strings to continued U.S. support.
Venezuela
  • Trump's special envoy for special missions, Ric Grenell, embarked on a very special unannounced mission to Venezuela last Friday. He met Pres. Maduro in Caracas, and returned with six U.S. citizens that Maduro agreed to free from Venezuelan jails and Maduro's agreement to take back Venezuelans deported from the U.S.
  • Maduro doesn't seem to have gotten much in return. Grenell denied offering Maduro any concessions - financial or otherwise - and said that "the only award for Maduro was my physical presence."
  • Trump was clear that Grenell's visit doesn't lend Maduro's ill-gotten presidency any legitimacy and that he remains "a big opponent of Venezuela and Maduro."
  • Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado called the staged photo of Grenell and Maduro shaking hands "a terrible image, one that no one wants to see," but downplayed concerns that Grenell's visit will boost Maduro's legitimacy.
Afghanistan
  • The Taliban's deputy foreign minister, Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai, stepped out of his government's dark age mindset and overtly criticized its ban on women's education during a graduation speech in Khost two weeks ago: "There is no excuse for this – not now and not in the future. We are being unjust to 20 million people."
  • Stanikzai has now left Afghanistan, and media reports suggest Taliban supreme leader Hibatullah Akhundzada forced him out because of his provocative comments in Khost. However, some think Stanikzai is part of a wider faction of Taliban leaders who are starting to split with Akhundzada.
El Salvador
  • SecState Rubio secured what he called "the most unprecedented and extraordinary migratory agreement anywhere in the world" from El Salvador's Pres. Bukele.
  • According to Rubio, Bukele agreed to accept violent criminals from the U.S. - including not only deported illegal aliens, but also incarcerated U.S. citizens and legal residents - and house them in Salvadorean jails.