Ukraine

• Ukrainian officials began to corroborate yesterday's reports of rapid Ukrainian gains in the south. One senior official told the NYT the offensive operation had been in the works for months, but only now entered its active phase.
• Ukraine's gains in the south are frustrating Russia's ambitions to annex four southern regions: the Kremlin even acknowledged that it wasn't sure where to draw the annexation borders because of how quickly control is changing.
• The annexation order Russia's upper house ended up approving yesterday - which now goes to Pres. Putin for signature - includes large areas Russia does not control (e.g. Lyman, Kherson).

• Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, responded to raging protests for the first time since they started three weeks ago. He condemned the "rioting" and blamed the U.S. and Israel for sparking the movement (in reality, it was his own religious police who started it when they killed 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after arresting her for violating headscarf rules).
• Iran's top technology university is closed today after police confronted protesting students and arrested hundreds of them.

• North Korea fired a ballistic missile over Japan for the first time in five years, prompting Japanese officials to warn residents to take cover. This missile flew around 2,800 miles (4,500 km), which is the longest distance a North Korean missile has ever traveled.

• A U.S. airstrike in southern Somalia killed Abdullahi Yare (aka Abdullahi Nadir), a senior Al Shabaab commander who reportedly co-founded the terrorist group back in 2005 and led its proselytizing department. Yare is the first senior Shabaab leader eliminated in over two years.

• PM Dbeibah's government signed a preliminary oil exploration deal with Turkey yesterday. Greece and Egypt immediately objected to the idea of exploring disputed waters, as did Libya's eastern government.

• OPEC+ is contemplating a significant reduction of output to boost falling oil prices. The group could cut production by up to one million barrels per day - or 1% of global supply - and Saudi Arabia may voluntarily hold more back, despite U.S. pressure to pump more to keep oil prices low and starve Russia of oil revenues.

• Incumbent president Bolsonaro's strong showing in Sunday's first-round election surprised analysts, who expected him to do far worse than ex-president Lula; instead, he was only four points behind. The Oct. 30 runoff between Bolsonaro and Lula could be close.
• Haiti reported at least 20 suspected cholera cases over the past few days. That's concerning because cholera spreads quickly and Haiti's health system is underequipped to handle an outbreak. The last cholera outbreak in Haiti - in 2019 - infected about 820,000 people (almost one in ten Haitians) and killed about 10,000.