Posted by BW Actual on Feb 3rd 2025
BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF
Coming Up This Week
- Israel and Hamas were supposed to begin negotiations over the second phase of their ceasefire and hostage release deal today in Qatar or Egypt, but those talks appear delayed: Israel's delegation has not arrived - or even been named - yet. Prime Minister Netanyahu first wants to discuss the deal with Pres. Trump in Washington this week.
- Cape Town's annual Mining Indaba takes place today through Thursday.
- The Invictus Games - a multi-sport competition for global wounded, injured, and sick military service personnel - run from Saturday, Feb. 8 through Sunday, Feb. 16. This edition is hosted by Whistler, Canada.
- The Kansas City Chiefs play the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LIX on Sunday at 6:30 pm ET. You can watch live for free on Fox in the U.S., or stream (paid) on SiriusXM, Hulu, YouTube, etc. anywhere.
- If NFL isn't your thing, you can instead tune in to Ecuador or Liechtenstein's general elections on Sunday.
Commodity Prices
- Aluminum: $2,594/ton
- Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $33,550/ton
- Cobalt: $21,550/ton
- Copper: $9,048/ton
- Gold: $2,799/toz
- Lead: $1,950/ton
- Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.31/MMbtu
- WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $74.31/barrel - up ~3% on concerns that new U.S. tariffs on Canadian oil will disrupt supplies
- Zinc: $2,742/ton
Trade

- Pres. Trump followed through on his threat to slap 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% tariff on imports from China on Saturday, warning that the new levies could cause "some pain" for American consumers through higher prices for goods. Collections would start in March.
- In the end, Trump decided to carve out a special exemption rate of 10% for Canadian oil and gas imports to spare Americans from a more drastic rise in energy prices.
- Canada already announced retaliatory 25% tariffs on certain U.S. goods - including whiskey and peanut butter - and Mexico's Pres. Sheinbaum said she instructed her government to implement unspecified retaliatory measures (but reiterated that she would've preferred dialogue instead). China also promised "corresponding countermeasures" and said it would lodge a complaint with the World Trade Organization.
- Canada, Mexico, and China are the U.S.'s three largest trading partners, and together represent 40% of U.S. imports by value.
Syria
- A Russian delegation visited Damascus to plead with Syria's new leaders to let Moscow keep its military bases there - even though Russia previously used those bases to bomb the rebel groups that now lead the country.
- Pres. Al Shara politely received the Russian delegates, but then launched into a list of demands that probably made them regret their trip. He asked Russia for compensation for its wartime damage, and said Russia "must address past mistakes" - like picking the wrong side in Syria's civil war, perhaps.
- More pointedly, Al Shara demanded that Russia send Assad back to Syria to face justice. That's a non-starter for Pres. Putin, who would never betray a fellow dictator to the rebels that overthrew him - especially when they plan to try Assad for war crimes that Putin was complicit in.
- Al Shara then left Syria for Saudi Arabia on his first official foreign trip since his appointment. Comparing the photos below, Al Shara seemed much happier to meet Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (right) than Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov (left).
- Al Shara is seeking to shift Syria's geopolitical alignment away from Iran - which backed Assad - and towards Saudi instead.
South Africa
- Pres. Trump accused Pres. Ramaphosa's government of "confiscating land, and treating certain classes of people VERY BADLY" in a Truth Social post yesterday, and threatened to withhold all U.S. aid for South Africa while the confiscation claims are investigated.
- Trump is referring to a law South Africa recently passed that allows the government to expropriate land - and, in some cases, to do so without compensating the landowner (though Ramaphosa insists his government has not confiscated any land).
DRC
- Congolese authorities reported at least 773 deaths in Goma since the city fell to M23 rebels last week.
- The M23 intends to keep control of Goma, and is restoring basic services like water and electricity as displaced residents start to return to their homes.
- Meanwhile, around 4,000 Rwandan soldiers have joined the rebels' front lines, which are reportedly advancing quickly towards Bukavu, and now only around 37 miles (60 km) north of South Kivu's capital.
- Media reports suggest many Congolese soldiers shed their uniforms and fled the fight; other Congolese troops who were interviewed in M23 custody cursed their commanders and their president, Felix Tshisekedi, for failing to reinforce their ranks and mount an adequate defense.