Ukraine

• Russia seems to have prevailed in Mariupol: Ukraine declared an end to the "combat mission" to defend the Azovstal steel plant, and the hundreds of remaining Ukrainian defenders there - including many wounded - were evacuated to Russian-held territory.
• Mariupol would be the first significant Russian victory of the war: its capture will enable Russia to complete a land bridge between Crimea and Russia. And its fall will enable Russia to redeploy the troops that were bogged down in Mariupol to other battles.

Russia

• Pres. Putin hosted the leaders of five post-Soviet countries - Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan - for the 30th anniversary of the founding of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which is sort of a Russian counterbalance to the NATO military alliance.
• Notably, Pres. Lukashenko of Belarus was the only leader in the group that voiced unequivocal support for Russia: he called on the other countries to help Russia and Belarus circumvent Western sanctions.
• The other CSTO leaders shied away from the topics of Ukraine and counter-sanctions support, having wisely calculated that backing Putin would jeopardize the economic and geopolitical ties they're trying to build with the West.
• Now that it seems almost a foregone conclusion that Finland and Sweden will join NATO*, Putin tried to save face by downplaying his reaction to the alliance's expansion: he said it presents "no direct threat to Russia," but warned that Russia would react if NATO sends troops or weapons to the new members.
• *Turkey could still kill Finland's and Sweden's hopes for joining NATO: Pres. Erdogan confirmed he would oppose their membership applications, and since new members must be unanimously approved his opposition would block their membership.

Somalia

• With some of Somalia's political uncertainty settled by yesterday's inauguration of a new president who's friendly to international intervention, the U.S. is looking to send troops back to Somalia.
• Pres. Biden approved a redeployment of up to 450 Special Operations troops, following a gap of two years since Pres. Trump withdrew the 700 who were there.
• Biden also approved a standing authority to target around a dozen suspected Al Shabaab leaders in Somalia.

Sahel

• Mali's ruling junta said "Western-backed" military officers attempted an unsuccessful coup on the night of May 11, but claims the plot was easily foiled. It's significant that the junta blamed Western backers for the failed coup: Mali has been increasingly isolating itself from Western countries as it turns to Russian mercenaries for security help.
• On a related note, Mali's junta also announced plans to withdraw from the multinational G5 Sahel force, which was set up in 2017 to unify Sahelian militaries against the armed jihadists that roam the region. The junta cited frustration with a lack of progress as its reason for leaving the bloc, but its departure is just another example of the junta's increasing isolation.

Libya

• PM Bashagha tried to enter Tripoli overnight, and supporters of rival PM Dbeibah violently repelled him - and the armed supporters he brought with him. So the standoff between Bashagha and Dbeibah continues.

Cobalt

• The Cobalt Institute reported that electric vehicles (EVs) surpassed laptops and tablets as the largest source of demand for cobalt: EVs consumed 59,000 tons of cobalt in 2021, which is 34% of total global demand.
• That report also noted that cobalt demand outstripped supply by about 10% in 2021, and is expected to almost double in the next five years. A Financial Times article pasted below has more detail on the outlook for cobalt.

Electric vehicles overtake phones as top source of cobalt demand (Financial Times)
Rare metal’s price surges on supply concerns and proliferation of battery-powered cars

Electric vehicles overtook smartphones and personal computers for the first time last year as the main source of demand for cobalt, a rare metal used in lithium-ion batteries.

The automotive industry consumed 59,000 tonnes of cobalt in 2021, or 34 per cent of total demand, as sales of electric and hybrid vehicles doubled, according to a report by the Cobalt Institute.

That outstripped the 26,000 tonnes of metal used in mobile phone manufacturing and 16,000 tonnes in laptops and tablets. Total demand for cobalt was 175,000 tonnes against mined supply of 160,000 tonnes.

The mismatch in those figures highlights one of the biggest challenges facing the automotive industry as it goes electric: securing enough raw material. As more electric vehicles are rolled out, concerns are mounting about potential supply crunches for crucial battery metals from cobalt to lithium and nickel. Demand from the car industry is expected to account for half of the cobalt demand by 2026.

Cobalt is seen as particularly problematic because it is a byproduct of mining copper and nickel, and supply is very concentrated by geography and company.

Almost three-quarters of the world’s mined cobalt supply comes from the Democratic Republic of Congo, where production is dominated by Chinese companies and London-listed Glencore. The Cobalt Institute report shows that the central African country produced 118,000 tonnes of cobalt in 2021 — significantly more than the next largest supplier, Australia, at just 5,600 tonnes.

That has fuelled speculation about whether a big carmaker might acquire a miner. Tesla’s chief executive Elon Musk told an industry conference last week that he was open to the idea.

“It’s not out of the question,” he said at the FT Future of the Car Summit. “We will address whatever limitations are on accelerating the world’s transition to sustainable energy. It’s not that we wish to buy mining companies, but if that’s the only way to accelerate the transition, then we will do that.” Tesla has a goal of producing 20mn electric vehicles annually, up from 1mn last year.

A growing number of electric cars in China — the world’s largest EV market — are powered by lost-cost lithium-iron phosphate batteries, which generally have inferior range and performance. But the top models in the US and Europe are still dominated by nickel-cobalt chemistries. These batteries accounted for three-quarters of global EV demand in 2021, according to the report.

“Cobalt-containing batteries are a technology of choice for many car manufacturers in Europe, North America and China,” said Adam McCarthy, president of the Cobalt Institute.

Looking ahead, the institute sees cobalt demand hitting 320,000 tonnes in the next five years, up from 175,000 tonnes in 2021, as the car industry produces more battery-powered vehicles.

While supply is expected to pick up this year and in 2023, leading to a more balanced market, the Cobalt Institute says it will start to slow from 2024, leading to large deficits. “From 2024-26 supply growth will average 8 per cent per year, compared to more than 12 per cent for demand,” the report projected.

The price of cobalt doubled last year, rising from $16 a pound to $32/lb on the back of strong demand from the automotive sector and supply disruptions. It is currently trading at $37/lb.