BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF

Posted by BW Actual on Jun 16th 2022

BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF

Ukraine

  • Despite ominous reports about Russia's progress in eastern Ukraine, Ukraine's Western allies are doubling down on support. The U.S. pledged another $1 billion - bringing its total commitment since the war began to around $5.6 billion - and Canada and four European countries pledged more artillery. Additionally, the leaders of Germany, France, and Italy are showing solidarity by visiting Pres. Zelensky in Kyiv today.
  • That said, the NYT suggests the West won't be able to stomach the grinding long war Ukraine is looking likely to be: rising inflation and high gas prices will eventually nudge them to encourage Ukraine to negotiate peace.
  • China's Pres. Xi reportedly also encouraged Pres. Putin to "push for a proper settlement" to the war during a birthday phone call yesterday (it was Xi's birthday).
Russia
  • Israel, Egypt, and the EU signed a trilateral memorandum that will boost the flow of Israeli natural gas through Egypt and then to the EU as an alternative to Russian gas supplies. EU president Ursula von der Leyen says the new infrastructure will also be "fit for renewables" - even though it will also increase natural gas production offshore Egypt and Israel.
  • Meanwhile, Russia's Gazprom says it's reducing gas supplies to Germany and Italy by 60% due to a "technical condition." Germany and Italy called it a "political" move.
China
  • Pres. Xi signed a trial order allowing "military operations other than war" outside of China, which analysts worry would provide a legal basis for military missions involving Taiwan.
  • Taiwan is rightly concerned: a Taiwanese official said he hoped China wouldn't invoke the new order to "act indiscriminately and invade other countries."
Saudi
  • Yesterday Washington DC renamed the street in front of the Saudi embassy "Jamal Khashoggi Way" in memory of the Saudi-American journalist that Saudi agents murdered and dismembered in Istanbul in October 2018.
  • The troll was awkwardly timed ahead of Pres. Biden's planned trip to Saudi next month. That said, street renamings are more of a tit for tat protest than a sign of real diplomatic rift: in fact, Saudi previously renamed the street in front of the U.S. consulate in Jeddah "Palestine Street" to protest U.S. support for Israel.
Iran
  • Seven earthquakes struck the Iranian coast around Kish Island yesterday and were felt all the way across the strait in Dubai, but there were no reports of injuries or damage.
Mozambique
  • Militants carried out a series of attacks in Cabo Delgado over the past week - including one on a graphite mine and others on civilian villages - leading thousands of people to flee their homes.
  • The new attacks show that - while the multinational African force fighting militants in Cabo Delgado has made progress - it hasn't been able to root the jihadist groups out of the region. Analysts say the insurgents have now splintered into three different groups.
Migration
  • The first flight that was supposed to send asylum-seekers from the UK to Rwanda was stopped at the last minute by an injunction from the European Court of Human Rights, which raised concerns that Rwanda isn't a safe place to send them.
  • The UK plans to try to reschedule the flight, and PM Johnson suggested the UK could withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights to go around the court's injunction.
Economy
  • As markets had begun to anticipate, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised benchmark interest rates by three-quarters of a point to 1.5%-1.75% yesterday - the largest increase since 1994 - in an effort to tame inflation. The Fed also signaled more rate hikes to come, and officials forecast rates of 3.4% by the end of this year.
  • The European Central Bank (ECB) called an unscheduled meeting to "discuss current market conditions" and said it would raise rates by one-quarter of a point in July. It'll be the ECB's first rate hike in 11 years.
  • Sri Lanka is facing a more dire situation due to far higher inflation rates of 39%. The government just announced a plan to give all of its workers one day off per week to grow crops at home as an alternate supply of calories.