Ukraine War

• Pres. Putin spoke about his war in Ukraine for the first time in nearly a month, saying that peace talks had reached a “dead end” and vowing to continue the invasion “until its full completion.”
• He also directly addressed Russia’s pivot away from capturing Kyiv and towards the looming battle for the Donbas: “Our goal is to help the people who live in the Donbas, who feel their unbreakable bond with Russia.”
• Putin and his closest ally, Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko, absurdly alleged that British secret agents were responsible for the atrocities discovered in Bucha after Russian occupiers withdrew. MI6 didn’t bother to respond.
• The Ukrainian agency that manages the Chernobyl site jokingly nominated Russian soldiers who briefly occupied the area for a Darwin Award for allegedly stealing radioactive souvenirs from two labs at the former power plant. It shouldn’t be hard to identify the thieves: the items they took were reportedly contaminated with dangerous levels of radiation, and there are hundreds of Russian troops being treated for radiation poisoning at hospitals in Belarus.
• On a darker note still, the port city of Mariupol seems close to falling to Russia. Russia says thousands of Ukrainian marines have surrendered, and the remaining defenders have dug in to protect the Azovstal industrial district. The fall of that zone seems imminent, and would give Russia control of the port and a vital land corridor for transferring troops and supplies to the Donbas.
• A Ukrainian lawmaker said the substance a Russian drone dropped on Mariupol was “most likely” a chemical agent, although other Ukrainian officials are cautiously waiting for proof before repeating the heavy accusation.

Afghanistan

• The State Department’s 2021 Human Rights Report noted “significant human rights issues” in Afghanistan—both before NATO forces withdrew in August and after the Taliban took over following the withdrawal.
• Unsurprisingly, the report noted a rise in human rights abuses under Taliban leadership, including reprisal killings and new limitations on rights for women and minority groups.

Guinea

• The article pasted below summarizes a recent CRU research report about how Guinea’s junta is squeezing multinational mining companies to commit to refining more minerals in country before export. That’s not a new goal, but recent moves like halting operations at Simandou suggest the government is more serious than ever about carving out its share of resource revenues.

Strategic Minerals

• Glencore announced a multi-year deal to supply General Motors (GM) with cobalt from its Murrin Murrin project in Australia for use in GM’s Ultium batteries for electric vehicles. The batteries will be built in Quebec under a GM joint venture with POSCO Chemical.

Other News

• The global COVID case count reached 500 million yesterday, but COVID deaths are falling: most new cases are of the less lethal—but highly transmissible—omicron variant.
• Sri Lanka warned that it’ll be suspending payments on its bonds as it restructures its debts in an effort to avoid default amidst rampant inflation. Demonstrators are blaming the president and PM—who are siblings—for mismanaging the economy, and demanding that they step down.

Guinea junta turns up the heat on bauxite miners (Mining.com)

The military junta that took control of Guinea in September is heaping pressure on multinational miners to refine raw bauxite, a raw material used to make aluminium, to more advanced materials before export.

In a recent research note released by CRU Group’s senior analyst, Anthony Everiss, the junta has asked the companies to present the mines ministry with proposals by the end of May with a precise timetable for constructing refineries. The junta appears to be doubling down, turning the nation’s mineral wealth into a means of economic development.

Bauxite miners in Guinea have reportedly previously committed to developing them.

According to CRU data, the announcement comes when Guinea bauxite shipments to China are at an all-time high, surpassing 6 million tonnes in a single month for the first time.

However, there is currently just one alumina refinery in operation, which was built several decades ago.

Everiss said the drive for value-added investment has been in place for some time and has always been a common theme when international mining companies, industry partners, and government officials gather at the annual Guinea Mining Symposium.

However, Everiss noted this recent announcement might have more significant rhetoric as it was the first time Guinea’s junta had shown its hand and was the strongest sign of intent yet that the new military regime was determined to pursue a policy of resource nationalism.

“The message to the international mining community in recent times is that Guinea is now much more aware of the value of their resources, has better control and understanding of the mining industry and exports, and would be ensuring a more equitable share of the revenue and profits from international mining endeavours. This was coupled with a focus on social inclusion, agriculture, infrastructure spending and sustainability,” said Everiss.

CRU currently does not expect a greenfield alumina refinery to be built in the country before 2026. “Technical limitations alongside higher capital costs versus China may lead to disappointment for the government’s expectations. Running costs also are likely higher than competing nations,” said Everiss.

According to CRU, six companies have planned 11 million tonnes per year of alumina refining capacity in Guinea. “However, unlike the significant progress in bauxite mining, the progress of the alumina refineries is very slow at present. Only SMB’s alumina project has made some progress,” said Everiss.

CRU notes, however, that significant hurdles remained when it came to building greenfields alumina refineries in the country, namely that inputs such as all the other raw material needs, such as energy and caustic soda, need to be imported.

“The key issue is whether the projects can control the other raw material costs. Compared to Indonesia, for example, the mining cost in Guinea is lower. But Guinea refineries also contend with a longer distance if opting to transport the alumina back to China,” said Everiss.

“Nevertheless, new permits for mining will need to be accompanied by a clear investment plan for a downstream plant, depending on the scale of the project. In bauxite, the ruling military regime had remained firmly committed to continuing resource mining and export, but now requires ‘partnership’ with industry for longevity.”

“The latest announcement shows that it will be increasingly important for mining companies to build on verbal commitments and set into motion the actions needed to construct alumina refineries, rail, roads, and port infrastructure, alongside community spending,” said Everiss.