BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF

Posted by BW Actual on May 26th 2022

BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF

Ukraine

  • Pres. Zelensky took offense to suggestions from former U.S. SecState Kissinger that he should cede parts of the Donbas to Russia in exchange for a peace deal: "It seems that Mr Kissinger’s calendar is not 2022, but 1938, and he thought he was talking to an audience not in Davos, but in Munich of that time."
  • Meanwhile, Russia's Defense Ministry promised to open a corridor to let foreign vessels carrying food exports leave the Black Sea - and another one to allow sea evacuations from Mariupol.
Food Protectionism
  • Russia's war in Ukraine - and especially its blockade of Ukrainian exports - has led to a global shock to food prices. The World Bank expects food prices to rise 23% this year, and says high prices will persist through 2024.
  • Major food exporters are responding with a wave of "food protectionism:" restricting exports to prioritize domestic supplies. Malaysia limited chicken exports, Brazil cancelled sugar export contracts, and India banned sugar and wheat exports.
Russia
  • Russia's Duma gave initial approval for a bill that would allow Russian entities to appropriate assets that foreign companies left behind when they exited the Russian market. Most large Western companies have either temporarily or permanently left Russia, so there would be quite a few assets up for grabs. The bill must first pass two more readings, though.

North Korea

  • South Korea says the North has been testing a nuclear detonation device, and will likely carry out its first nuclear test in almost five years soon.
China
  • China announced a new 33-prong stimulus package to "get the economy back on a normal track." However, analysts say the biggest thing hindering China's economy is its zero-COVID policy: as long as that's in place, no amount of stimulus is going to get a locked down economy on a "normal track."
Iran
  • Israel reportedly told U.S. officials it was responsible for Sunday's assassination of IRGC Colonel Sayad Khodayee outside of his home in Tehran.
  • Israel also told U.S. officials it targeted Col. Khodayee because he was the deputy commander of the IRGC's covert Unit 840, which Israel says carries out cross-border abductions and assassinations of foreigners (including Israelis).
  • Iran has never acknowledged that Unit 840 exists, and it's hard to assess Israel's accusations against the shadowy unit. Some Iranian analysts wonder if Israel is seeking to make the IRGC look especially nefarious right now so the U.S. doesn't consider removing its terrorist designation as a bargaining chip for a new nuclear deal.
Afghanistan
  • A series of explosions in Kabul and Mazar-i-Sharif killed at least 11 people. Like other recent attacks in Afghanistan, these targeted the Shia minority. Islamic State claimed the Mazar-i-Sharif blasts, and was likely responsible for the Kabul one too.
Sahel
  • Niger says its military killed 40 Boko Haram jihadists who attacked their positions on islands in Lake Chad, and repelled another 60.
Other
  • Hungary's autocratic PM, Viktor Orban, declared a fresh "state of emergency" due to the war in Ukraine, which analysts expect him to use to bypass the legislature and grab more power for himself.