Ukraine

• Both Ukraine and Russia are shifting their armies to the east, where they’re expecting to meet in a large battle for the Donbass.
• Russia reportedly appointed General Alexander Dvornikov to take charge of its overall operations in Ukraine—and solve the setbacks stemming from its lack of a central command structure in theatre—as the battle focuses on the east.
• Dvornikov is a seasoned military leader: he commanded Russian forces in Syria during 2015 and 2016—which is notably when the Syrian government forces they fought alongside were accused of using chemical weapons on their own people.
• In a translated interview with 60 Minutes, Pres. Zelensky said Ukraine’s ability to survive the Russian onslaught in the east depends on the U.S. sending it weapons to use against the growing arsenal Russia is moving to the front. Zelensky lamented: “Unfortunately, I don’t have the confidence that we will be receiving everything we need.”
• Separately, authorities say Russia’s attack on the Kramatorsk railway station on Friday killed 57—almost twice the initial estimate. Most of the casualties were civilians trying to flee fighting.

China

• China’s zero-COVID strategy is proving challenging against the more easily transmissible omicron variant spreading largely via asymptomatic carriers. New cases in Shanghai hit a record high for an eighth straight day on Saturday (though they were down slightly yesterday), and the city plans to test its entire population of 25 million yet again. Residents are tiring of an extended lockdown.

Libya

• There are rumors that eastern warlord / powerbroker Khalifa Haftar ordered the closure of Libya’s oilfields and ports—as well as the main east-west highway—over a dispute with PM Dbeibah’s government in Tripoli. Haftar’s forces deny reports of any closures.
• As often with Libya, I’m confused about the dynamics going on here: I know Dbeibah and rival Tobruk PM Bashagha are still vying for legitimacy and Dbeibah’s supporters have blocked Bashagha from entering Tripoli, but I’m not sure where Haftar fits in. He still holds significant sway in the east, and may now be playing both sides for a slice of power in whichever government prevails. [If anyone reading this has more clarity on what’s going on in Libya, please let me know!]

Guinea

• Guinea’s ruling junta set a deadline of May for international mining companies to present their plans to bring bauxite refining in-country so Guinea can capture more of the value chain by exporting higher-value alumina instead of raw bauxite ore.
• It’s not that simple, of course: Guinea doesn’t have enough electricity capacity to support the refining process, so miners would have to build new power plants too.
• The junta’s order seems vague anyway: coup leader Mamadi Doumbouya didn’t specify a due date in May, and only threatened vague “penalties” if miners fail to meet that non-specific deadline. This is probably an effort to open negotiations to generally demand more from mining companies—as Guinea did from Simandou last month.

Other News

• France’s Pres. Macron did a little better in yesterday’s first round election than opinion polls guessed he’d do, but far-right candidate Marine Le Pen’s nationalist appeals won enough support to bring the vote to a runoff on April 24. Macron is still favored, and will likely pick up some votes from leftist candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who just barely trailed Le Pen in round one.
• Mexico’s Pres. AMLO overwhelmingly won a referendum he called on himself that asked voters to approve him finishing his term. Analysts say it was designed to confirm a mandate for his ambitious reform plans; however, turnout was so low that the vote won’t give him much of a mandate at all.